Moody's (Moody's) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Apr. 28, 2024)

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What is Moody's Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Moody's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Moody's's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges subindustry, Moody's's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Moody's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Capital Markets Industry

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Moody's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Moody's's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Moody's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.10

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Moody's (NYSE:MCO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Moody's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Moody's (Moody's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MCO:Mexico DUT:Germany DUT:Germany MCOR34:Brazil

Address

7 World Trade Center at 250 Greenwich Street, New York, NY, USA, 10007

Website

https://www.moodys.com

Moody's, along with S&P Ratings, is a leading provider of credit ratings on fixed-income securities. The ratings segment, Moody's Investors Service, includes corporates, structured finance, financial institutions, and public finance ratings. MIS represents a majority of the firm's revenue and profits. The other segment, Moody's Analytics, consists of research, data, and analytics as well as enterprise risk solutions. RD&A's products include credit research, quantitative credit scores, economic research, business intelligence, know-your-customer tools, commercial real estate data and analytical tools, and training services. ERS includes risk-management software solutions for financial institutions.

Executives

Robert Fauber	director, officer: President and CEO	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Michael L West	officer: President, Moody's Investors	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Richard G Steele	officer: SVP - General Counsel	C/O MOODY'S CORPORATION, 7 WORLD TRADE CENTER AT 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Kathryn Hill	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Lloyd Jr Howell	director	8283 GREENSBORO DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Vincent A Forlenza	director	C/O BECTON DICKERSON & CO, 1 BECTON DR, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
Jorge A. Bermudez	director	CORPORATE LAW DEPT., CITIGROUP INC., 425 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10043
Jose Minaya	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Saun Bruce Van	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD, STAMFORD CT 06901
Leslie Seidman	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Therese Esperdy	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Caroline Sullivan	officer: SVP - Corporate Controller	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Mark Kaye	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007
Raymond W Mcdaniel	director, officer: Executive Vice President	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Stephen T Tulenko	officer: President, Moody's Analytics	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH ST, NEW YORK NY 10007